RAAL La Louvière 0-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 36%, yet in-form RAAL La Louvière provide a compelling counter-argument — this RAAL La Louvière vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RAAL La Louvière host Dender at Easi Arena in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group - 31). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RAAL La Louvière stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RAAL La Louvière's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Dender — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dender's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
RAAL La Louvière are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 1 for Dender and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended RAAL La Louvière 1–2 Dender — a Dender win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
RAAL La Louvière in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Dender in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 58% versus Dender 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 48% | Dender 54%). Note also that Dender surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while RAAL La Louvière recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.15 xG and Dender 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.850 / defence 1.182 | Dender attack 0.734 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Dender's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 30 games and Dender's last 60.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 36% | Draw 28% | Dender 36%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 2.79 | Draw 3.52 | Dender 2.79. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — RAAL La Louvière 36% and Dender 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RAAL La Louvière 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 31 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 36% | Draw 28% | Dender 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.15 / Dender 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.850 / def 1.182 | Dender attack 0.734 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — RAAL La Louvière and Dender level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dender xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Dender FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Dender kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Dender kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Dender?
RAAL La Louvière 0 - 1 Dender.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Dender part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Group - 31) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 36% chance of winning, Dender a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (0.85) and Dender's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 30 games and Dender's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.52
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.29
1.15
Dender xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.15 for Dender, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 21D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Dender sit at 0.81 PPG from 59 outings (10W 18D 31L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
RAAL La Louvière carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.07 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Dender in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 24W 21D 14L in their last 59 games (1.58 PPG), while Dender have gone 10W 18D 31L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Dender away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.62 PPG; Dender away: 0.69 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dender in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dender have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
RAAL La Louvière's record when hosting Dender specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
3
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Dender?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Dender have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Dender 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 45%, Dender 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (RAAL La Louvière) and 62% (Dender).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 38% of games; Dender in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of RAAL La Louvière's games and 66% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RAAL La Louvière and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 62% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 72% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out RAAL La Louvière 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat RAAL La Louvière 0-1 at Easi Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.15 xG and Dender 1.15 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RAAL La Louvière fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Dender attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 36% | Draw 28% | Dender 36%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, Dender 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Dender winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.