OH Leuven 1-3 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OH Leuven host Standard Liege at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 31). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OH Leuven have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OH Leuven's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Standard Liege stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OH Leuven at 1.40 PPG versus Standard Liege's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of OH Leuven: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Standard Liege, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended OH Leuven 1–0 Standard Liege — a OH Leuven win.
The head-to-head data gives OH Leuven an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
OH Leuven trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 49% versus Standard Liege 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OH Leuven 37% | Standard Liege 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.08 xG and Standard Liege 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.937 / defence 0.933 | Standard Liege attack 0.835 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 36% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.76 | Draw 3.34 | Standard Liege 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (OH Leuven 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (OH Leuven's last 10 home games and Standard Liege's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 40% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 31 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 36% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG OH Leuven 1.08 / Standard Liege 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.937 / def 0.933 | Standard Liege attack 0.835 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Standard Liege xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Standard Liege kick off?
OH Leuven vs Standard Liege kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
OH Leuven 1 - 3 Standard Liege.
Where is OH Leuven vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Standard Liege part of?
OH Leuven vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 31) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 36% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both OH Leuven and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will OH Leuven vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.94) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Standard Liege's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.34
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.10
1.03
Standard Liege xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.03 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 25D 27L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Standard Liege's form line: 21W 23D 26L from 70 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.13 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 35 home games (11W 15D 9L).
On the road, Standard Liege have gone 10W 10D 15L from their last 35 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.77 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Standard Liege in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
OH Leuven (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 25D 27L in their last 70 games (1.13 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 21W 23D 26L in their last 70 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Standard Liege away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.37 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.14 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OH Leuven
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: OH Leuven 1-2 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Standard Liege?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 51%, Standard Liege 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for OH Leuven and 34% for Standard Liege.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege in 34%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 29% of games; Standard Liege in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Standard Liege matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 26% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of OH Leuven's recent games and 34% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 60% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat OH Leuven 1-3 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.08 xG and Standard Liege 1.03 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Standard Liege attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 36% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 37%, Standard Liege 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.13 PPG, Standard Liege 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.