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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Standard Liege cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat OH Leuven 1-3 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.08 xG and Standard Liege 1.03 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Standard Liege attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 36% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 37%, Standard Liege 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Standard Liege's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.13 PPG, Standard Liege 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights