🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

OH Leuven and Standard Liege share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, as OH Leuven and Standard Liege drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.47 xG and Standard Liege 0.83 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 50% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 19%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 40%, Standard Liege 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Standard Liege's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.17 PPG, Standard Liege 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights