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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours OH Leuven (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as OH Leuven face Standard Liege.

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Match Analysis

OH Leuven host Standard Liege at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, OH Leuven have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: OH Leuven have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Standard Liege have managed just 0 wins.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with OH Leuven winning.

The historical record gives OH Leuven a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

OH Leuven trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Standard Liege trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 52% versus Standard Liege 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 40% | Standard Liege 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.47 xG and Standard Liege 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.916 / defence 0.836 | Standard Liege attack 0.888 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Data: 60 OH Leuven games / 60 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OH Leuven 50% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 19%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Standard Liege 5.26. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 30% | Standard Liege 60% BTTS from recent games.

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