🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat OH Leuven 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 1-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 43% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 28%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 36%, St. Truiden 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.08 PPG, St. Truiden 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights