OH Leuven 1-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to Den Dreef. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven at Den Dreef this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.40 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OH Leuven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St. Truiden in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 1 for St. Truiden and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with OH Leuven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 46% versus St. Truiden 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 36% | St. Truiden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.066 / defence 0.996 | St. Truiden attack 1.032 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.022. Data: 44 OH Leuven games / 44 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 28%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 60% | St. Truiden 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG OH Leuven 1.36 / St. Truiden 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.066 / def 0.996 | St. Truiden attack 1.032 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.05
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 1 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 43% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
Record (8 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 4 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.41
1.05
St. Truiden xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.05 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 12W 18D 20L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 19L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.08 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 7W 11D 6L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.38 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 12W 18D 20L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.33 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 50%, St. Truiden 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (OH Leuven) and 54% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; OH Leuven have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of OH Leuven's games and 67% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OH Leuven's recent games and 54% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat OH Leuven 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 1-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 43% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 28%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 36%, St. Truiden 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.08 PPG, St. Truiden 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.