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Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out St. Truiden 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 3-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.45 xG and St. Truiden 0.75 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 0.71 against St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 51% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 17%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 39%, St. Truiden 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.13 PPG, St. Truiden 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights