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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven and Dender share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, as OH Leuven and Dender drew 4-4 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.94 xG and Dender 0.88 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against Dender attack 0.96 / defence 1.44, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Dender 15%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 35%, Dender 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Dender's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.19 PPG, Dender 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights