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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out Dender 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Dender 3-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.49 xG and Dender 0.64 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.75 / defence 0.63 against Dender attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 55% | Draw 32% | Dender 13%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 33%, Dender 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Dender's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.16 PPG, Dender 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights