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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven and Charleroi finished level at 2-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.46 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 42% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 30%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.12 PPG, Charleroi 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights