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Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.41 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 39%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights