OH Leuven vs Charleroi – Match Report

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Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Charleroi 1-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.31 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 43% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 20%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 43%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.15 PPG, Charleroi 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights