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Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Antwerp 1-0 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.01 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Antwerp attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 38%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Antwerp's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.10 PPG, Antwerp 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights