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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Liège.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Liège 3-0 at Soevereinstadion, Quarter-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.30 xG and Liège 1.29 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liège landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Liège attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 37% | Draw 26% | Liège 37%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 52%, Liège 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Liège's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.03 PPG, Liège 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights