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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Dender 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Dender 3-2 at Soevereinstadion, Final, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.15 xG and Dender 1.18 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dender attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 35% | Draw 28% | Dender 37%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Dender 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights