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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beerschot VA.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Beerschot VA 3-1 at Soevereinstadion, Semi-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 55%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.16 PPG, Beerschot VA 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights