Lommel United 3-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to Soevereinstadion to face Lommel United in Jupiler Pro League, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Soevereinstadion, Lommel United have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soevereinstadion this season.
Beerschot VA have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Lommel United. A 0.60 PPG lead over Beerschot VA (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lommel United, 4 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 55% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Beerschot VA attack 0.992 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 0 Lommel United games / 30 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 2.17. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Beerschot VA lead the H2H ledger, but Lommel United carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lommel United (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 50% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Semi-finals | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Lommel United 1.14 / Beerschot VA 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Beerschot VA attack 0.992 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Lommel United vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Lommel United 3 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA part of?
Lommel United vs Beerschot VA is a Semi-finals fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 29% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lommel United and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Beerschot VA?
Record (6 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 4W.
What form are Lommel United and Beerschot VA in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.99x) against Lommel United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.90
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.65
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.51 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 6D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.87 PPG from 31 outings (6W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Lommel United against 0.87 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 3W 5D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.20 points per game from 15 outings (0W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beerschot VA's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.10 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 6W 9D 16L in their last 31 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Beerschot VA away?
Lommel United's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 0.93 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lommel United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lommel United
0
Draws
4
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-3 Lommel United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 67%, Beerschot VA 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lommel United) and 60% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lommel United's games and 53% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lommel United's recent games and 60% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Beerschot VA 3-1 at Soevereinstadion, Semi-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 55%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.16 PPG, Beerschot VA 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.