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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Liège at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liège vs Lommel United encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Quarter-finals as Liège welcome Lommel United to Stade de Rocourt. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Liège — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Liège have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Liège at Stade de Rocourt this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Liège are significantly better at Stade de Rocourt than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Liège at 1.10 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Liège, 2 for Lommel United and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Lommel United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Liège trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Lommel United trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liège 67% and Lommel United 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 67% | Lommel United 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.30 xG and Lommel United 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 0 Liège games / 0 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Liège 37% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 37%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Lommel United 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Liège 70% | Lommel United 30%.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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