🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Liège 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Liège 1-2 at Stade de Rocourt, Quarter-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.30 xG and Lommel United 1.29 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 37% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 37%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 67%, Lommel United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.23 PPG, Lommel United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights