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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 2-0 at Het Kuipje, Conference League Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual KVC Westerlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 53%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.29 PPG, Charleroi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights