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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 2-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 0.98 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a KVC Westerlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 54%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.26 PPG, Charleroi 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights