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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo and Charleroi finished level at 2-2 at Het Kuipje, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.82 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 45% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 29%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 68%, Charleroi 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.12 PPG, Charleroi 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights