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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KV Mechelen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 1-3 at Achter de Kazerne, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.31 xG and St. Truiden 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against St. Truiden attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 42% | Draw 33% | St. Truiden 25%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 51%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.42 PPG, St. Truiden 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights