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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KV Mechelen and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 2.31 xG and St. Truiden 1.22 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KV Mechelen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 1.30, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 61% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 18%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 54%, St. Truiden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.39 PPG, St. Truiden 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights