Kortrijk 2-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Kortrijk.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 54% versus Union St. Gilloise 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 48% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.03 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.743 / defence 0.974 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.268 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.311. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Kortrijk games / 67 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 23% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 50%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Union St. Gilloise 2.00. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 40% | Union St. Gilloise 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 23% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Kortrijk 1.03 / Union St. Gilloise 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.743 / def 0.974 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.268 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Kortrijk 2 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 23% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (3 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 3W.
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.74) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
23%
4.35
27%
3.72
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.65
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
22.00
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.62 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 17W 17D 33L from 67 games, a 1.01 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 44W 12D 11L across 67 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 9W 9D 15L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 22W 7D 4L across 33 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.03 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 17W 17D 33L in their last 67 games (1.01 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 44W 12D 11L in their last 67 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.09 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Union St. Gilloise 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kortrijk) and 61% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 33%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 61% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kortrijk's recent games and 61% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 2-4 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.03 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 23% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 50%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 48%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.