Antwerp 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bosuilstadion plays host to Antwerp versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Antwerp at Bosuilstadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kortrijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Antwerp's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Antwerp 1W, Kortrijk 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 44% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 48% | Kortrijk 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.11 xG and Kortrijk 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.155 / defence 0.692 | Kortrijk attack 0.979 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.322. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Antwerp games / 66 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Kortrijk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 30% | Kortrijk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 2.11 / Kortrijk 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.155 / def 0.692 | Kortrijk attack 0.979 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kortrijk xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Kortrijk kick off?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Antwerp 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Antwerp vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Kortrijk part of?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 64% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): Antwerp 1W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.16) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.98x) against Antwerp's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.61
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.01
0.90
Kortrijk xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
59.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.90 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 38W 11D 17L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 17W 17D 32L from 66 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 2.00 PPG from 33 outings (20W 6D 7L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 8W 8D 17L from 33 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.18 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 38W 11D 17L in their last 66 games (1.89 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 17W 17D 32L in their last 66 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Kortrijk away?
Antwerp's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.00 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Antwerp go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 6, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 46%, Kortrijk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 52% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Antwerp's recent matches and 61% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antwerp's recent games and 52% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.11 xG and Kortrijk 0.90 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kortrijk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 0.69 against Kortrijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 48%, Kortrijk 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.