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Kortrijk and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 6, as Kortrijk and St. Truiden drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.57 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 42% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 29%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, St. Truiden 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights