Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours St. Truiden — this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off is Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kortrijk stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Kortrijk have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
St. Truiden — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kortrijk at 1.70 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kortrijk's games and 70% of St. Truiden's (from Kortrijk's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, St. Truiden have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Kortrijk.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2025, ended Kortrijk 3–0 St. Truiden — a Kortrijk win.
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 47% versus St. Truiden 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | St. Truiden 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kortrijk surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.57 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.845 / defence 1.105 | St. Truiden attack 1.042 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. St. Truiden's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kortrijk's projected output up. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 60 games and St. Truiden's last 60.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 29%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.37 | Draw 3.49 | St. Truiden 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kortrijk's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 60% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Kortrijk 1.57 / St. Truiden 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.845 / def 1.105 | St. Truiden attack 1.042 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Kortrijk 2 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 42% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 60 games and St. Truiden's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.49
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.85
1.28
St. Truiden xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.28 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 20W 13D 40L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 21W 24D 28L from 73 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 36 home games (12W 6D 18L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 5W 11D 20L from their last 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.30 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 64%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
Kortrijk (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Kortrijk vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 20W 13D 40L in their last 73 games (1.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 21W 24D 28L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.17 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won St. Truiden 0-3 Kortrijk.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 53%, St. Truiden 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kortrijk) and 61% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Kortrijk's games and 67% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kortrijk and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kortrijk's matches and 61% of St. Truiden's.
Do Kortrijk and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 75% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 6, as Kortrijk and St. Truiden drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.57 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 42% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 29%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, St. Truiden 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.