Kortrijk vs Dender – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dender run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kortrijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dender beat Kortrijk 0-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.63 xG and Dender 0.89 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kortrijk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Dender attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 32% | Dender 17%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Dender win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 55%, Dender 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dender's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights