Kortrijk vs Dender – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.87) and Dender's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
51%
1.95
32%
3.15
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.89
Dender xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
30.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.89 for Dender, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.