Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Kortrijk welcome Beerschot VA to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporenstadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 0, Beerschot VA 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 42% versus Beerschot VA 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | Beerschot VA 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.84 xG and Beerschot VA 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.783 / defence 1.040 | Beerschot VA attack 0.785 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.034. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Kortrijk games / 11 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 58% | Draw 29% | Beerschot VA 14%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Beerschot VA 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Kortrijk (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Beerschot VA 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 58% | Draw 29% | Beerschot VA 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Kortrijk 1.84 / Beerschot VA 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.783 / def 1.040 | Beerschot VA attack 0.785 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Beerschot VA xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA part of?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 58% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kortrijk and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.78x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
58%
1.73
29%
3.50
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.69
0.84
Beerschot VA xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
46.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.84 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 7D 21L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.49 PPG from 41 outings (18W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.12 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kortrijk's home form reads 8W 2D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.30 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kortrijk
2
Draws
2
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 45%, Beerschot VA 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Kortrijk and 65% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 35% of games; Beerschot VA in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 55% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Kortrijk's matches and 65% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Kortrijk and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Beerschot VA 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Beerschot VA 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.84 xG and Beerschot VA 0.84 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.48, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 58% | Draw 29% | Beerschot VA 14%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 51%, Beerschot VA 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.12 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.