🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.34 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.74 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 48% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 18%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Union St. Gilloise win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 52%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.71 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights