Gent 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gent at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Group Arena plays host to Gent versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gent have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Planet Group Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gent are significantly better at Planet Group Arena than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Gent, 1.50 for Union St. Gilloise — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Gent 0W, Union St. Gilloise 0W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gent goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 56% versus Union St. Gilloise 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 52% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.34 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.121 / defence 0.852 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.832 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.047. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Gent games / 49 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 48% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 18%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Union St. Gilloise 5.56. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 48% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Gent 1.34 / Union St. Gilloise 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.121 / def 0.852 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.832 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Gent (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Union St. Gilloise xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Gent 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 48% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gent and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (3 meetings): Gent 0W | Draws 3 | Union St. Gilloise 0W.
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gent's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.83x) against Gent's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
48%
2.08
34%
2.93
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gent xG
Total xG
2.08
0.74
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
21.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gent and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gent and 0.74 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Gent have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 28W 17D 14L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 31W 19D 9L from 59 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Gent against 1.90 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (15W 8D 5L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 11W 12D 5L from 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gent are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.78 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 28W 17D 14L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 19D 9L in their last 59 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Gent's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.89 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Gent or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gent
6
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 64%, Union St. Gilloise 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gent) and 46% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gent's games and 57% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Gent's matches and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Gent and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.34 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.74 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 48% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 18%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Union St. Gilloise win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 52%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.71 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.