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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Gent run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Dender 3-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.76 xG and Dender 1.06 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gent beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Dender attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 52% | Draw 26% | Dender 21%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 50%, Dender 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dender's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.22 PPG, Dender 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights