Gent 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 6 sees Charleroi travel to GHELAMCO-arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gent's home record at GHELAMCO-arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GHELAMCO-arena this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Gent have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gent, 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 44% versus Charleroi 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 46% | Charleroi 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.11 xG and Charleroi 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.260 / defence 0.902 | Charleroi attack 0.938 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.308. Gent carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Gent games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 60% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Gent (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Gent 40% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 6 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 60% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Gent 2.11 / Charleroi 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.260 / def 0.902 | Charleroi attack 0.938 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Gent (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Charleroi xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Gent 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Conference League Play-off Group - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 60% chance of winning, Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Gent 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.26) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.89
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Gent xG
Total xG
3.22
1.11
Charleroi xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
2%
43.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Gent and 1.11 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 22W 8D 9L from 39 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 13L across 39 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.62 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 games (1.90 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 10D 13L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.05 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gent or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Charleroi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 47%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Gent and 79% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Charleroi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gent's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gent's matches and 79% of Charleroi's.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Gent 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Gent 1-2 at GHELAMCO-arena, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.11 xG and Charleroi 1.11 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gent fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.26 / defence 0.90 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 60% | Draw 20% | Charleroi 19%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 46%, Charleroi 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.