Charleroi 3-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
AS Eupen — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. AS Eupen haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 2, AS Eupen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 4–0 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 41% versus AS Eupen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 68% | AS Eupen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.82 xG and AS Eupen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.003 / defence 0.898 | AS Eupen attack 0.873 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.301. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 AS Eupen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 56% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | AS Eupen 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 40% | AS Eupen 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 56% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Charleroi 1.82 / AS Eupen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.003 / def 0.898 | AS Eupen attack 0.873 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AS Eupen xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Charleroi 3 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 56% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charleroi and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.00x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.37
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.84
1.02
AS Eupen xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
3%
29.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.02 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 15W 6D 13L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. Charleroi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AS Eupen's form line: 8W 8D 18L from 34 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. AS Eupen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.09 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Pre-Season
AS Eupen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.47 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Charleroi or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Charleroi
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
From 8 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 29%, AS Eupen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Charleroi) and 65% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 35% of games; AS Eupen in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Charleroi's recent matches and 47% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Charleroi's matches and 65% of AS Eupen's.
Do Charleroi and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 3-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.82 xG and AS Eupen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against AS Eupen attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 56% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 68%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.