Gent vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Charleroi travel to Planet Group Arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Planet Group Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Planet Group Arena this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 2.30 PPG versus Charleroi's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Gent, 3 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 52% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 48% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.13 xG and Charleroi 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.062 / defence 0.772 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gent's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Gent games / 38 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 33%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 40% | Charleroi 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Gent 1.13 / Charleroi 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.062 / def 0.772 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Gent (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Charleroi xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Planet Group Arena.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 37% chance of winning, Charleroi a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Gent 5W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.06) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.41
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Gent xG
Total xG
2.18
1.05
Charleroi xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gent and 1.05 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 20W 14D 14L from 48 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 18L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.54 PPG, Charleroi on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.67 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gent or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 50%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gent) and 38% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gent's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gent's recent games and 38% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.