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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.20 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 32% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 57%, Union St. Gilloise 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.89 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights