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Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Genk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.29 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.25 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 39% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 28%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 53%, Union St. Gilloise 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.79 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights