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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Union St. Gilloise 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 0.74 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 34% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 32%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.77 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights