🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Standard Liege run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Genk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Genk 0-3 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.46 xG and Standard Liege 0.90 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Standard Liege outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Standard Liege attack 0.66 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 50% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 23%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liege win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Standard Liege 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Standard Liege's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights