Genk 0-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Genk face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 32). Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genk have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
OH Leuven (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Genk's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Genk, who have won 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against OH Leuven — OH Leuven have 2 wins, with 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Genk 2–1 OH Leuven — a Genk win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Genk and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 62% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 61% | OH Leuven 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.49 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.051 / defence 0.929 | OH Leuven attack 0.919 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from Genk's last 60 games and OH Leuven's last 60.
Result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 29%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.20 | Draw 3.88 | OH Leuven 3.48. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 50% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 32 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Genk 1.49 / OH Leuven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.051 / def 0.929 | OH Leuven attack 0.919 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Genk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.13
OH Leuven xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Genk vs OH Leuven kick off?
Genk vs OH Leuven kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Genk 0 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is Genk vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs OH Leuven part of?
Genk vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 32) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 45% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genk and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.92x) against Genk's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 60 games and OH Leuven's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.88
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Genk xG
Total xG
2.62
1.13
OH Leuven xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genk and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Genk and 1.13 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Genk have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 37W 15D 19L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 18W 25D 28L from 71 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 35 home games (21W 6D 8L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 7W 10D 18L from their last 35 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Genk vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Genk and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 37W 15D 19L in their last 71 games (1.77 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 18W 25D 28L in their last 71 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or OH Leuven away?
Genk's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.97 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Genk
1
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 7, OH Leuven have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Genk and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and OH Leuven?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 49%, OH Leuven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Genk) and 40% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; OH Leuven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and OH Leuven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Genk's recent matches and 46% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Genk's recent games and 40% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Genk's recent matches and 63% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and OH Leuven finished level at 0-0 at Cegeka Arena, Conference League Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.49 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. OH Leuven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 29%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 61%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.