Charleroi 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Charleroi, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Antwerp — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Antwerp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Antwerp 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.993 / defence 1.160 | Antwerp attack 0.724 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Antwerp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Antwerp 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 32 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Charleroi 1.08 / Antwerp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.993 / def 1.160 | Antwerp attack 0.724 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antwerp xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Conference League Group - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 35% chance of winning, Antwerp a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 5W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Antwerp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.99x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.72x) against Charleroi's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.42
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Antwerp xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.11 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 17D 29L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.25 PPG from 72 outings (23W 21D 28L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Charleroi against 1.25 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.14 points per game from 35 outings (9W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.24 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 26W 17D 29L in their last 72 games (1.32 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 23W 21D 28L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.54 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 51%, Antwerp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Charleroi and 23% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antwerp in 31%; Antwerp in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charleroi's recent matches and 40% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 23% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Antwerp attack 0.72 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 35% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Antwerp 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Antwerp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.