Genk vs Kortrijk – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.18x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.69x) against Genk's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.7%), 4-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
83%
1.21
14%
7.02
3%
30.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
Genk xG
Total xG
3.42
0.56
Kortrijk xG
1.21
83%
Home win
7.02
14%
Draw
30.96
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
6%
17.39
Win to Nil
47%
2.13
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Genk and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Genk and 0.56 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.