🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Dender 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Dender 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.78 xG and Dender 0.96 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Dender attack 0.76 / defence 1.35, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 54% | Draw 28% | Dender 18%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Dender 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights