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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

15:00

Venue

Cegeka Arena

Competition

Jupiler Pro League

Belgium

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Genk Win

54%

Genk

1.85

28%

Draw

3.55

18%

Dender

5.65

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

2 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.78

Genk xG

Total xG

2.74

0.96

Dender xG

54%
28%
18%
GenkDrawDender

1.85

54%

Home win

3.55

28%

Draw

5.65

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

38%

Genk

2.61

17%

Dender

5.91

Win to Nil

21%

Genk

4.83

3%

Dender

33.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5 6.2 3.0 1.0 0.2
1 11.5 11.0 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.2 9.8 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 6.1 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2
4 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.777
λ Away (xG) 0.961
Total xG 2.738
League avg home goals 1.341
League avg away goals 1.163
Genk attack strength 0.979
Genk defence strength 1.085
Dender attack strength 0.761
Dender defence strength 1.355
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 39