Genk 1-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 34). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Genk at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Charleroi (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Genk edge it 3 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Genk 2–2 Charleroi — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 62% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 60% | Charleroi 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.39 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.049 / defence 0.932 | Charleroi attack 0.924 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from Genk's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 31%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.35 | Draw 3.76 | Charleroi 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 34 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Genk 1.39 / Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.049 / def 0.932 | Charleroi attack 0.924 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Genk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Charleroi xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 1 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 34) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 43% chance of winning, Charleroi a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.92x) against Genk's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.76
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Genk xG
Total xG
2.52
1.14
Charleroi xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Genk and 1.14 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Genk have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 38W 16D 19L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 27W 17D 29L from 73 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 36 home games (21W 7D 8L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 8D 18L from their last 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 38W 16D 19L in their last 73 games (1.78 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 27W 17D 29L in their last 73 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.94 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won Genk 4-1 Charleroi on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 47%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genk) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genk's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Genk's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genk's recent matches and 72% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Charleroi finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Conference League Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.39 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 31%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 60%, Charleroi 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.