🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Genk and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk and Charleroi finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Conference League Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.39 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 31%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 60%, Charleroi 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights