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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.79 xG and Charleroi 1.42 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Charleroi attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 29%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights